Real estate statistics
Properties available for sale fall for the first time this year
17 Dec 2024
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 17 Dec 2024)
House sales down 6.9% from October (sa)
House prices rose 0.2% from October (sa)
Stock of properties for sale down 1.5% from October (sa)
The key numbers...
- House sales in November fell 6.9% from October (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment), but remain higher than a year ago, up 11% from November 2023.
- House prices rose narrowly, up 0.2% in November from October (seasonally adjusted), which was only the second monthly rise since May. House prices have been lower than a year ago for four consecutive months, with the annual decline of 1.4%pa in November the biggest since October last year.
- Prices remain volatile month-to-month at a regional level. Hawkes Bay and Gisborne led the monthly declines in November, down by -1.7% and 1.6% respectively, followed by Marlborough (-1.3%). Tasman led the list of increases (up 2.4%), followed by Northland (1.9%) and Taranaki (1.4%, all figures seasonally adjusted). On an annual basis, prices in the South Island continue to hold up stronger than in the North, with all regions rising by 0.2-4.9%pa, except for Marlborough (down 0.8%pa).
- The stock of properties for sale fell 1.5% in November from October, marking the first fall in stocks since December 2023. New listing numbers fell 10% from October, but they were still higher than a year ago (3.9%pa), for the 11th consecutive month.
Stock for sale narrows as new listings slow
New Zealand based listings on realestate.co.nz, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Properties available for sale on the market had been steadily rising since January 2024, but finally took a turn in November. This shift was helped by the number of new listings slowing to around 8,700, its lowest level since January. There remains a large surplus of properties for sale on the market, with just over 33,000 available, but if buyer demand continues to strengthen, the stock of available properties could continue to moderate over the next 12 months.
- Sales fell from October and were at their lowest level since June, but they have held above levels from a year ago for 19 consecutive months (excluding a blip in June 2024). The average length of time on the market rose 2.8% from October, rising by 1 day to 47 days remaining higher than a year ago, up 11%pa (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- As expected, the Reserve Bank cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points at the end of November. With much of this cut already priced in, we have not seen much of a reduction in mortgage rates. The average one-year rate has fallen by around 16 basis points, and longer-term rates have declined by even less.
- Heading into the summer months, potential buyer numbers could be buoyed further by lower mortgage rates. However, many buyers might remain cautious, with the unemployment rate expected to peak at around 5.4% in the first half of 2025.
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