Real estate statistics
Properties available for sale continue to outrun sales
14 Nov 2024
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 14 Nov 2024)
House sales up 2.3% from September (sa)
House prices down 0.1% from September (sa)
Stock of properties for sale continues to rise
The key numbers...
- House sales in October rose 2.3% from September (based on Infometrics seasonal adjustment), and up 20%pa from October 2023. House sales remain volatile but have been higher than a year ago for 18 months, except for a blip in June 2024.
- House prices fell narrowly, down 0.1% in October from September (seasonally adjusted), returning to the declining trend seen since May, with the exception of September. On an annual basis, house prices have been lower than a year ago for three consecutive months, sitting 1.1%pa lower in October.
- Prices remain volatile at a regional level. Taranaki and Tasman led the monthly declines in October (-2.7%), followed by Wellington (-0.8%). Gisborne led the list of increases (up 3.6%), followed by Hawke’s Bay (2.6%) and Nelson (2.1%, all figures seasonally adjusted).
- The stock of properties for sale rose 1.5% in October from September –the eleventh consecutive monthly rise – and the stock of properties available for sale is just above 33,500. New listing numbers rose 2.3% from September, with new listing monthly numbers now 21% higher than a year ago.
Surplus of stock for sale continues to grow
New Zealand based listings on realestate.co.nz, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- There’s still a large surplus of properties available for sale on the market, increasing competition for sales by giving potential buyers a vast level of choice in the market, and therefore restricting house price growth. With new listing continuing to come into the market, there will likely be a surplus of stock for the foreseeable future with current levels equating to around half a year’s worth of current sales.
- However, higher sales levels are occurring too. Combined with a shift lower in the time taken to sell a house, the housing market might be showing some early spring in its step. The average length of time on the market fell 8.1% from September, falling by 4 days to 46 days – after hitting 50 days last month for the first time in 18 months (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- The weak labour market will continue to constrain potential buyer numbers as the unemployment rate continues to tick up over the next 6-9 months. The recent increase in the unemployment rate to 4.8% - the highest level since December 2020 – underscores the financial challenge many potential and actual homeowners will be finding themselves facing.
- We expect to see mortgage rates to fall further following an expected 50-basis-point cut to the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank at the end of this month. Coming into the summer months, these lower rates will be welcomed by households with their home on the market, but with some of this cut likely already priced in by retail banks as they continue to compete for limiting lending opportunities, the reduction in mortgages rates may be more muted than anticipated.
- Lower mortgage rates mean that buyers can afford to borrow more, all else being equal, but they may not be willing to commit to house purchases if they are concerned about the risk of unemployment.
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