Our take on the latest National population estimates (Wed 20 Nov 2024)
Series name
5,348,600
As of September 2024
Population growth slows to 1.2%pa in September 2024 quarter
Net migration eases to 44,900 for year ending September 2024
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s resident population grew 1.2%pa in the September 2024 quarter to an estimated total of 5,348,600. Stats NZ have continued to revise down their population estimates, with the June 2024 population 5,100 lower than previously estimated.
- Annual net migration fell from 68,500 in the year to June 2024 to 44,900 in the year to September 2024. Net migration in the September 2024 quarter was less than a third of net migration in September 2023 quarter, which was one of New Zealand’s highest quarters on record
- With net migration slowing, growth in the under-65-year-old population has slowed sharply. The under 15-year-old population grew just 0.4%pa the September 2024 quarter, dragged down by a 0.7% decline in the 0-4-year-old population. The working age 15–64-year-old population rose 1.1%pa, but there was a 1.8% fall in the 25-29-year-old age group.
- The 65-years-and-older population rose 2.9%pa, with the strongest growth occurring in the 75-79-year-old population, up 4.9%pa.
- Growth in the number of dwellings continues to slow, up 1.6%pa in the September 2024 quarter, down from a peak of 2.3%pa in the June 2023 quarter. Dwelling growth is at its lowest level since September 2019.
Population growth slows sharply in under-65s
Annual % change, NZ population
...and our reaction
- New Zealand’s population growth continues to slow down from a record high, with growth of 1.2%pa in the September 2024 quarter back into normal territory. The last time New Zealand’s population grew at around 1.2%, before the pandemic, was in 2013.
- Annual net migration is moderating, and we expect it to continue trending down, driven by further falls in non-citizen arrivals. Non-citizen arrivals are still at historically elevated levels, with 36,700 arriving in the September 2024 quarter alone, despite New Zealand’s weak labour market and rising unemployment rate.
- It is unsurprising to see the over-65 age group leading our population growth, particularly as the net migration injection into younger age groups has pulled back as more young people leave New Zealand, and fewer arrive to chase fewer job opportunities. However, it is concerning to see such weak growth in the under 15-year-old age group, which is in effect the future working age population. This slow under-15s growth isn’t a problem right now, but may become a constraint for employment growth as economic activity picks up in coming years.
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