Ready-mixed concrete

Concrete rises moderately, but remains down from a year ago

12 Nov 2024

Matthew Allman

Our take on the latest Ready-mixed concrete (Tue 12 Nov 2024)

Concrete volumes up 0.4% from June 2024 (sa)

Annual concrete volumes down by 5.5%pa

Weakest annual result since Sep 2015

The key numbers...

Annual ready-mixed concrete volumes fell to 3.88m cubic metres in September 2024, down 5.5% from the September 2023 year to the lowest annual level since September 2015.
On a quarterly basis, ready-mixed concrete volumes rose 0.4% from the June 2024 quarter. This increase was the second consecutive quarterly rise, and the only two quarterly lifts since June 2021 (seasonally adjusted).
Results remain mixed at the regional level, with Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay (up 12%), Canterbury (up 9.1%) and Waikato, Bay of Plenty (up 3.0%) the only regions to see quarterly rises from June 2024. All other regions fell, with Otago, Southland declining the furthest (down 6.5%), followed by Northland (down 6.2%), Taranaki, Manawatū-Whanganui, Wellington (down 5.6%), Auckland (down 1.1%) and West Coast, Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough (down 0.2%).
Metropolitan areas also saw mixed results. The Christchurch Metropolitan area rose for the third consecutive quarter, up 9.0% from June. The Wellington Metropolitan area resumed its declines after a 6.6% quarterly rise in June, falling back 4.4% in September. The Auckland Metropolitan area was down just 0.2%, but this drop was the fourth consecutive quarterly decline (all figures seasonally adjusted).

Quarterly concrete volumes relatively flat

000m3, quarterly ready-mixed concrete volumes, seas. adj.

...and our reaction

Although we have seen two consecutive quarterly increases in volumes, concrete volumes remain weak. Quarterly volumes have remained between 0.95 and 0.99m cubic metres for the past year, around 9.0% below the average in the year prior to the pandemic (1.07m cubic metres).
Residential consents trends are mixed at a build-type level, with standalone house consents beginning to stabilise in recent months. Attached dwelling types are dragging overall consent levels lower, except for retirement units, which have started to rebound over the last three months. The lag between consent and construction means that further falls in activity are still likely.
Non-residential building consents have continued to fall in 2024, reducing the future pipeline of non-residential work. There is scope for a small rally in non-residential consents in the final quarter of the year, but we expect non-residential consents to return to falling throughout 2025 as construction activity is constrained by limited demand as economic conditions remain tough.
Tight funding conditions are being experienced at both local and central government levels, leaving little scope for additional projects to come into the non-residential pipeline. This trend will likely have adverse effects for health and education building, as the government revisits the scope and timing of many projects. Private sector work will see limited demand as weak economic conditions reduce demand for factory, warehousing, and retail space
Concrete volumes are likely to see further declines as construction activity dips over the next 12-18 months. With limited consents coming in, and little scope for an upswing with tight fiscal conditions and weak investment intentions from businesses, the pipeline of work requiring concrete will continue to narrow. Infrastructure presents the most positive outlook for concrete demand, although the need for planning and design of projects, and tight funding conditions, are still likely to limit growth in civil work as well.

Latest updates

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Ready-mixed concrete

Concrete rises moderately, but remains down from a year ago

The key numbers...

Quarterly concrete volumes relatively flat

...and our reaction

Latest updates

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