Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Fri 13 Sept 2024)
House sales down 3.9% from July (sa)
House prices down 0.1% from July (sa)
Stock of properties for sale continues to rise
The key numbers...
- House sales in August declined 3.9% from July (seasonally adjusted), following a 19% jump in the previous month. The series has remained volatile since the turn of the year, although average monthly sales over the past 12 months are 13% above the year to August 2023.
- House prices edged down 0.1% in August from July (seasonally adjusted). Annual house price slipped from +0.2% in July to -0.8%pa, turning negative for the first time since November 2023.
- Prices fell by as much as 3.5% on a regional basis from July, led by Marlborough (-3.5%), Gisborne (-2.6%), and Tasman (-2.0%). A few outliers that saw growth were Nelson (1.8%), Northland (1.6%), and Auckland (0.9%, all figures seasonally adjusted).
- The stock of properties for sale rose 0.9% from July, the ninth consecutive monthly rise, taking the stock over 33,000 for the first time since June 2015. New listing numbers fell 6.0% from July, although they remain 8.1% higher than a year ago (all figures seasonally adjusted).
Annual house price growth turns negative
REINZ House Price Index, annual % change
...and our reaction
- Most regions saw a decline in sales volumes in August compared to July, with Otago (17%), Gisborne (13%) and Southland (13%) seeing the biggest moderations (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- The average length of time on the market jumped up 4.7% from July (seasonally adjusted). The series continues to be volatile month on month, but it is now (19%) higher than a year ago.
- The lack of opportunities in the labour market along with decreasing job security will be at the forefront of homeowners’ and potential buyers’ minds. As a result, we expect it to be mid-2025 before buyer numbers start to pick up, despite the beginning of easier monetary policy by the Reserve Bank and falling mortgage rates.
- Once buyer numbers eventually pick up, we do not expect it to translate into material house price growth while there continues to be an excess stock of properties for sale.
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