Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 20 Aug 2024)
House sales up 20% from June (sa)
House prices were unchanged from June (sa)
Stock of properties for sale continues to rise
The key numbers...
- House sales rose 20% from June, following three consecutive months of falling sales. The monthly rise was the largest since October 2021, but it only took sales back to March’s level.
- The stock of properties for sale rose 2.1% from June, the eighth consecutive monthly rise, taking the stock to 32,900, the highest volume since June 2015. New listing numbers ticked back up, rising 3.6% from June (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- House prices were unchanged between June and July (seasonally adjusted). Annual house price growth eased from 1.3% to just 0.2%pa, the slowest growth since November 2023.
- Prices fell by as much as 1.0% on a regional basis from June, led by Auckland (1.0%), Wellington (0.6%), and Northland (0.4%). Tasman (up 2.9%) and Bay of Plenty (up 2.6%) continue to show strength compared to the rest of the country (all figures seasonally adjusted).
House sales jump!
Monthly house sales, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Monthly sales volumes in July were above 5,900 for the second time this year, up from below 5,000 in June. Most regions saw sales volumes rise in July compared to June, with Gisborne (51%), Tasman (37%), and West Coast (33%) seeing biggest increases. High mortgage rates continue to be the main pressure on homeowners (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- The average length of time on the market jumped 2.1% from June (seasonally adjusted). The series continues to be volatile month on month, but it is now up (2.1%) compared to a year ago, the first annual rise in a year.
- The labour market continues to weaken, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in the June quarter and expected to peak at 5.4%. As a result, we expect buyer numbers to remain subdued, notwithstanding the jump in sales in July.
- Last week’s Monetary Policy Statement from the Reserve Bank took most analysts by surprise, with the official cash rate cut by 25bp. However, at this stage, debt-servicing costs and affordability are likely to remain problematic for potential buyers. Further interest rate cuts are expected at almost every meeting over the next 12-18 months, which could start to rekindle demand for housing by mid-2025.
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