National population estimates
Population growth slows as migration pulls back
19 Aug 2024
Our take on the latest National population estimates (Mon 19 Aug 2024)
Total NZ population estimate
5,338,500
As of June 2024
Population growth slows to 1.8%pa in June 2024 quarter
Net migration pulls back to 73,200 for year ending June 2024
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s resident population grew an estimated 1.8%pa in the June 2024 quarter. New Zealand’s population is now estimated to total 5,338,500, which is lower than the previously published figure for March 2024, which was revised down by 7,400 people.
- Net migration has pulled back sharply this quarter, from a 17,100 gain in the March 2024 quarter to just 2,000 in the June 2024 quarter. This quarter’s sharp pull back has dragged down annual net migration from 103,400 in the March 2024 year to 73,200 in the June 2024 year. Net migration in the June 2024 year is 45% below the peak in September 2023, yet it is still one of New Zealand’s strongest net migration gains on record.
- As net migration slows, population growth in the relatively mobile under-60-year-old age group has nearly halved, from 3.0% over the year to September 2023, to 1.6% over the year to June 2024. Growth in the population aged 60 years or older slowed from 2.9% to 2.4%pa.
- Growth in the number of households slowed to 1.8%pa in the June 2024 quarter, as did growth in the number of private dwellings. As a result, the number of people per household has held relatively stable at 2.65. Strong residential construction since 2020 has placed us in relatively good stead to accommodate last year’s burst of population growth, although the undersupply of housing is probably expanding again.
Population growth fastest amongst over-60s
Annual % change, NZ population
...and our reaction
- New Zealand’s population is quickly transitioning from a record high back into normal growth territory, although it isn’t quite there yet.
- We expected net migration to continue falling this quarter. However, Stats NZ’s provisional estimates show a sharper fall than expected, with net migration almost back to ”normal” levels. Across all citizenships, New Zealand’s net migration gain in the June 2024 quarter was just 2,000 (although we emphasise that this is provisional and subject to revision, and June is historically a weak quarter for net migration).
- A dramatically looser labour market means we no longer need to bring in workers at the rate of last year, and tightened immigration settings are forcing employers to look harder at domestic workers. The “brain drain” remains significant, with around 20,000 Kiwi leaving each quarter for the past three quarters.
- As migrant departures and arrivals become more finely balanced, the chances of net migration turning negative in some regions increases. We await Stats NZ’s subnational population estimate release in October to see how the national slowdown is playing out around the country. As our population ages, an increasing number of regions are wholly reliant on net migration to avoid population decline.
- This quarter’s population estimates provide a window into New Zealand’s looming demographic imbalance. In the June 2024 quarter, New Zealand’s under-five-year-old population fell 0.4%pa, even as the 75-79-year-old population grew 4.8%pa.
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