Our take on the latest Ready-mixed concrete (Fri 9 Aug 2024)
Concrete volumes up 0.7% from Mar 2024 (sa)
Annual concrete volumes down by 9.0%pa
Weakest annual result since Mar 2016 (excl lockdowns)
The key numbers...
- Annual ready-mixed concrete volumes fell to 3.93m cubic metres in March 2024, falling below 4m cubic metres for the first time since March 2016 (excl lockdowns), down 9.0% from the June 2023 year.
- On a quarterly basis, ready-mixed concrete volumes rose 0.7% from the March 2024 quarter, the first quarterly rise since the December 2021 quarter (seasonally adjusted).
- Results were mixed at a regional level. All but two regions saw quarterly rises, with Northland leading the way (up 9.7%), followed by Taranaki, Manawatū-Whanganui, Wellington (up 5.0%), and Canterbury (up 2.5%). The two regions that recorded quarterly declines fell substantially, with both Gisborne and Otago declining 11%.
- Metropolitan areas also saw mixed results, with Auckland declining 1.7% from the March 2024 quarter. The Wellington Metropolitan area rose for the first time in almost a year (up 6.5%), but activity remains well below pre-pandemic volumes, lower than at any time between September 2015 and September 2023 (seasonally adjusted, excluding lockdown impacted quarters). The Christchurch Metropolitan area rose for the second consecutive quarter (up 1.7%).
Annual concrete volumes continue declining
000m3, annual running totals, ready-mixed concrete volumes
...and our reaction
- Concrete volumes continue to fall, reflecting slowing construction activity as the industry works through the pipeline of consents.
- Annual declines in residential consents have moderated since the beginning of this year, but the lag between consent and construction means that further falls in activity levels are still likely.
- Non-residential consents continue to fall considerably, reducing the future pipeline of non-residential building work.
- Fiscal austerity to get the government books under control is showing through falling education consent values. Less spending in the economy, resulting in lower sales for businesses, is flowing through into falls in factory, retail, and warehousing consents over the past year.
- We expect construction activity to continue to contract over the next 18 months as the current pipeline of work shrinks, and weak investment and tight fiscal conditions result in lower activity. As concrete usage tends to be early in the construction process, we expect to see further declines in concrete volumes.
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