Real estate statistics
Prices and sales fall as the stock of properties continues to rise
15 Jul 2024
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Mon 15 Jul 2024)
House prices down 0.4% in June from May (sa)
House sales down 9.0% from May (sa)
Stock of properties for sale continues to rise
The key numbers...
- House prices were down 0.4% between May and June (seasonally adjusted), falling for the second consecutive month for the first time since early 2023. Annual price growth slowed from 2.3% to 1.3%pa.
- Prices fell by as much as 2.2% on a regional basis from May, led by Northland (2.2%), Manawatū-Whanganui (1.7%), and Waikato (1.6%). The Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay regions bucked the trend, recording the largest increases in prices from May (up 2.6% and 1.8% respectively, all figures seasonally adjusted).
- House sales fell for the third consecutive month, dropping 9.0% from May (seasonally adjusted), the largest decline since February last year.
- The stock of properties for sale rose 3.2% from May, rising for the seventh consecutive month to reach 32,000 for the first time since mid-2015. New listing numbers moderated, edging down 2.4% from May (all figures seasonally adjusted).
House sales edge down
Monthly house sales, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Monthly sales volumes in June edged below 5,000 for the first time in over a year, moderating from 5,600 in May. Most regions saw sales volumes decline in June compared to May, with the West Coast (-43%), Gisborne (-38%) and Tasman (-17%) seeing the largest falls. Hawke’s Bay recorded the largest rise after a particularly weak May, up 38% (all figures seasonally adjusted). High mortgage rates continue to be the main driver of lower buyer numbers.
- The average length of time on the market jumped 5.3% from May (seasonally adjusted). The series continues to be volatile month on month, but it is still down (2.1%) compared to a year ago for the 11th consecutive month.
- The latest OCR review by the Reserve Bank was more dovish than anticipated, going from considering a raise to hinting at a cut. Potential home buyers may be holding out until financing conditions improve, with the growing chance of an interest rate cut in late 2024 or, as is our pick, in early 2025. Cost-of-living pressures remain at the forefront of households’ minds, with the pressures limiting the ability to save for a deposit, while the weakening labour market will also be reducing people’s willingness to take on debt.
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