Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 16 Apr 2024)
House prices down 1.0% in March from February (sa)
House sales down 0.6% from February (sa)
Stock of property for sales continues to climb
The key numbers...
- House prices fell 1.0% in March (seasonally adjusted), the largest monthly fall since December 2022.
- Prices were particularly weak in the upper North Island, with monthly falls of between 1.5% and 2.8% across Auckland, Waikato, and Northland. Annual price growth in the latter two regions slipped back into negative territory.
- Sales volumes stabilised after last month’s 12% jump in activity, edging down 0.6% from February (seasonally adjusted). The annual growth rate in sales of 8.0% was the weakest since October.
- New listing numbers remain elevated, up 24% from last year. The stock of properties for sale reached a new eight-year high.
House prices fall as market loses momentum
REINZ house price index, monthly % changes (seasonally adjusted)
...and our reaction
- February’s lift in sales was sustained, with seasonally adjusted monthly volumes holding at around 5,800. Despite strong population growth, activity continues to be constrained by high mortgage rates.
- The latest trends in sales are being mirrored around the country. Although only Northland and Otago recorded lower sales volumes than in March 2023, sales continue to hold below the level reached in September last year.
- The latest dip in prices reflects a lack of competition among buyers across an expanding pool of properties to choose from. Interestingly, the average length of time on the market was the shortest in six months, suggesting some sellers are meeting the market, but that there is a larger pool of less attractive homes that have little buyer interest at the moment.
- The stalling in sales and latest monthly decline in house prices reinforce our view that house price inflation will remain subdued throughout 2024, with high mortgage rates limiting buyer numbers, and an excess supply of property for those buyers to choose from.
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