Real estate statistics
House sales rebound, but more sellers are trying to unload
14 Mar 2024
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 14 Mar 2024)
House sales up 12% from January (sa)
House prices unchanged from January (sa)
Stock of properties for sale at an eight-year high
The key numbers...
- House sales volumes rebounded 12% from January’s lacklustre result to reach their highest level since September (seasonally adjusted).
- The 38% increase in sales activity from February last year was the fastest annual growth since December 2020 (excluding lockdowns).
- At first glance, this strength would seem to overstate momentum in the housing market, with sales activity in February and March last year hit hard by the Auckland floods and Cyclone Gabrielle and their aftermath. However, annual growth in sales across Taranaki, Manawatū-Whanganui, Wellington, and the South Island was a healthy 30%, indicating that this year’s better weather was not the primary driver of the increase.
- House prices were more subdued, with prices unchanged between January and February (seasonally adjusted). With monthly declines from last year falling out of the numbers, annual price growth lifted to a 21-month high of 3.2%.
- The number of new listings in February was the highest since November 2021 and 34% above the average of the last year. The increased number of properties coming to market has pushed the stock of listings to its highest level since 2015.
Stock of properties for sale on the rise
Listings on realestate.co.nz, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- The improvement in sales volumes will be welcomed by real estate agents after several months of weaker activity. However, activity is still about 7% below the level reached in September last year, prior to the election.
- Strong net migration is likely to flow through into increased buyer interest in the housing market once the new arrivals to the country have settled themselves in. Although we expect further increases in sales activity later in 2024, buyer numbers are still likely to be relatively constrained by affordability issues.
- The expanding supply of properties is set to limit house price increases in coming months, even as fixed mortgage rates start to drift lower.
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