National population estimates
Net migration continues to drive record-high population growth
16 Feb 2024
Our take on the latest National population estimates (Fri 16 Feb 2024)
Total NZ population estimate
5,305,600
As at December 2023
Population growth remains high at 2.8%pa
Annual net migration eases slightly to 126,000
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s resident population grew an estimated 2.8%pa in the December 2023 quarter, on top of revised 2.9%pa growth in September. Population growth over the second half of 2023 is at its fastest rate since 1946 (3.2%pa). The estimated population now totals 5,305,600.
- Net migration has begun to come down from a peak, easing to 126,000 over the year to December. This slowdown comes alongside upwards revisions to previous figures, with the September peak revised up to 129,300 from 118,900 previously.
- The slowdown in net migration has enabled the 65+ age group to again become the fastest-growing cohort. Growth in the working-age population (15-64) reached a peak of 3.3%pa in the September 2023 quarter, briefly outpacing the 65+ age group, but has since edged down to 3.2%pa. Growth in the 65+ age group accelerated to a three-year high of 3.5%pa
- Growth in the number of households slowed to 2.1%pa in the December 2023 quarter from 2.3%pa previously. Similarly, growth in the number of private dwellings eased from 2.2%pa in the September quarter, to 2.1%pa.
Slowing migration returns 65+ growth to the top
Annual % change, New Zealand population
...and our reaction
- The population continues to grow at a historically high rate, but the slight easing in net migration has slowed population growth from “insanely fast” to “very very fast”.
- Net migration remains the key driver of population growth. Although migration largely benefits the working-age population, young age groups that were previously declining saw their growth rate turn positive or massively improve over 2023.
- We expect net migration to continue coming down from a peak over the remainder of 2024 as remaining labour market shortages are filled, and demand for labour slows. However, continual upward revisions to historical data, and a lack of any slowing in arrivals, suggests that this slowdown will be gradual. By June 2024, we expect annual net migration to still be above 100,000pa.
- The estimated net loss of New Zealand citizens deepened to a further record of 46,997 over the year to December as Kiwi departures continue to grow rapidly. This trend will weigh on population growth in regions with a domestic migration focus, while migrant arrivals boost growth in major urban areas.
- The net loss of younger New Zealanders could become a concern if it carries on after the net gain of non-citizens comes back to lower levels (which we expect to happen around 2028). As more people move into the 65+ year-old age group and natural increase slows, the overall population will age, posing important challenges for our infrastructure needs and economic growth. A stronger outflow, or “brain-drain” of young families and professionals would accelerate this trend, leaving holes in the workforce if non-citizen arrivals are insufficient.
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