Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Wed 14 Feb 2024)
House sales down 9.3% from Dec (sa)
Auckland sales down 17% from Jan 2023
House prices up 0.8% from Dec (sa)
The key numbers...
- House sales volumes fell 9.3% between December 2023 and January 2024 (seasonally adjusted), taking monthly activity to its lowest level since March last year.
- Sales activity in Auckland was lower than a year ago for the first time since May 2023, slumping 17% from January last year. In contrast, sales around the rest of New Zealand were up 16% from a year ago, with the biggest increases occurring in Bay of Plenty (45%), Northland (27%), and Waikato (26%).
- The median number of days to sell edged up to its highest seasonally adjusted level in six months, reiterating the sluggishness in the housing market.
- House prices shrugged off December’s monthly decline to increase by 0.8% in January (seasonally adjusted). Despite the weakness in the region’s sales numbers, prices in Auckland jumped 1.2%, although this lift did not fully reverse the 1.8% dip in Auckland’s house prices the previous month.
- There has been some variability in new listing numbers in recent months. However, January’s listing numbers were the highest since July 2022, taking the stock of properties available for sale to a 12-month high.
A weak start to 2024
Monthly house sales, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- The sustained weakness in house sales volumes since October last year is somewhat surprising given the strength of net migration and implications for housing demand. High mortgage rates appear to be a continuing limiting factor on buyer numbers, and buyers might also be waiting for more clarity on the government’s timeline for changes to investor tax rules.
- Recent relatively hawkish comments by the Reserve Bank and stronger-than-expected labour market data have forced financial markets to reconsider their expectations for official cash rate cuts this year, and have raised speculation that the official cash rate could even be increased at the end of February. This re-evaluation is likely to limit further declines in fixed mortgage rates over the next six months, further keeping a lid on buyer numbers.
- With gradual increases in the length of time on the market for properties, combined with an expanding stock of properties for sale, it is difficult to see the upward momentum in house prices continuing. House price inflation is currently at 2.2%pa, and given the choice of properties available to buyers, we remain of the view that growth of only up to 4-5%pa during 2024 is likely.
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