Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 12 Oct 2023)
Nationwide house prices up 0.4% from August (seasonally adjusted)
Sales volumes up 0.4% from August (seasonally adjusted)
Median period to sell falls to 40 days
The key numbers...
- Nationwide house prices rose 0.4% in September, with a slightly faster increase in Auckland (up 0.5% from August).
- Over the three months to September, annual house price declines moderated in all regions except Otago, where declines remained steady. Three-month annual growth turned positive in Southland (0.6%pa) after almost a year of declines. Taranaki shapes up as the most likely candidate to turn positive next, with three-month annual declines easing to just 0.4%pa in September.
- The median sales period fell to 40 days in September, the shortest sales period since early 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Sales activity was also buoyant, with nationwide house sales in the September quarter up 3.3% from the June quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. Quarterly sales activity grew across all regions except Waikato, Taranaki, West Coast, and Southland.
Prices up 1.9% in September quarter
REINZ House Price Index, quarterly % changes (sa)
...and our reaction
- All three key metrics of the property market’s performance – prices, sales, and time to sell – improved in September. A fourth consecutive month of rising prices affirms our view that the fundamental trend has shifted.
- The lower sales period also reflects a stronger feeling of certainty in the market, with investors more confident that the trough is now behind us. Next week’s election result is likely to firm up confidence, with more relaxed investor taxation rules under a National government.
- Affordability remains a key constraint on the extent of property market improvement, with some banks still increasing mortgage rates as longer-term wholesale rates continue to push higher. As a result of persistently elevated debt-servicing costs, we expect house price growth to remain modest throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.
- Although the house price resurgence will help to limit the downturn in residential building intentions, the pipeline of activity continues to weaken as high interest rates squeeze developers’ profit margins.
- Our outlook for both the housing market and building intentions will be further detailed in our upcoming Building Forecasts, to be published on Friday next week.
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