Our take on the latest National population estimates (Wed 16 Aug 2023)
Total NZ population estimate
5,223,100
As at July 2023
Population growth accelerates to 2.1%pa in June quarter
Annual net migration lifts to 86,800
The key numbers...
- The resident population of New Zealand was estimated at 5,223,100 in the June 2023 quarter, up 2.1%pa from the June 2022 quarter. This result was the strongest annual growth in around five years.
- Both the number of private dwellings, and the number of households, continued to rise at 2.3%pa.
- Quarterly net migration of 20,200 people in the June 2023 quarter was more than double the level of quarterly net migration pre-pandemic (June 2019), and pushed annual net migration to 86,800.
- Population growth among the under-30 age group accelerated to 1.2%pa, the second quarter of annual increase after a year of sustained decline. Growth in the working-age population (15-64) lifted to 2.3%pa, after plateauing through 2021 and 2022.
- Older people remain New Zealand’s fastest growing cohort, with the number of people aged 65 and over growing 2.8%pa in the June 2023 quarter.
Strong momentum in working-age population
Annual % change, NZ population
...and our reaction
- The population has grown considerably over the last year, as rapidly rising net migration adds people into the country, and increasingly the workforce. The 2.3%pa increase in the 15-64 population is the fastest rate since mid-2016.
- Net migration continues to be driven by a strong level of foreign migrant arrivals, with nearly 169,000 over the last year – up 59% from pre-pandemic levels. That strength highlights the work of the immigration Green List to bringing in skilled workers.
- But New Zealand departures are up too, with just over 61,000 Kiwis departing permanently over the last year, up 50% on pre-pandemic levels, highlighting the current people movements aren’t just a one-way street.
- Although migration remains high at present, adding to both demand and supply in the economy, job ads have declined 25% over the last year, leading to our view that migration will likely soften before the end of the year as remaining skills shortages are addressed and hiring activity slows down.
- With natural increase (births minus deaths) continuing to slow as the population ages, a stabilisation in net migration is expected which will likely bring a steadier, and more subdued, level of overall population growth.
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