Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 15 Aug 2023)
House prices excluding Auckland up 0.6% in July (seasonally adjusted)
Auckland house prices up 0.9% (seasonally adjusted)
Median period to sell remains at 48 days
The key numbers...
- House prices lifted for a second consecutive month in July, rising 0.7% across New Zealand, driven by a 0.9% in Auckland, with a 0.6% rise across the rest of New Zealand excluding Auckland (seasonally adjusted).
- On an annual basis, price declines moderated across the country in all regions but Taranaki. Price declines have eased from double-digit annual declines at the start of the year to a 6.9%pa fall in July.
- Nationwide prices are now 16% below their November 2021 peak, but are 22% above pre-pandemic levels on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- House sales continue to pick up across the country, with the largest increases in the Bay of Plenty (up 16%pa over the three months to July), the West Coast (up 13%pa), and the Wellington regions (up 12%pa). House sales are improving elsewhere too, with annual declines easing back to -4.5%pa in both Northland and Otago.
- The median sales period was 48 days in July, remaining fairly stable from June on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Migration helps put a floor under house prices
REINZ House Price Index, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- A second month of upwards movement provides more support to the idea that house prices are now picking up from a floor, but it’s not definitive evidence yet.
- Prices are more likely to stabilise and rise modestly from here, rather than soar upward, given that debt-servicing remains a crucial barrier for entrants to the housing market. We expect that massively elevated net migration (which reached a record high 86,770 over the year to June) is helping demand to rebound temporarily, raising the floor under house prices.
- Although sales have improved by 21% from their recent December 2022 low, there are still more than a thousand fewer houses sold per month nationwide than in mid-2019 (seasonally adjusted).
- One-year fixed mortgage rates are still three percentage points higher than pre-pandemic, and prices are more than 20% higher. As a result, the upside potential for improved demand conditions is restrained, limiting the scope for both price and sales growth over the remainder of 2023.
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