Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 18 Apr 2023)
House prices down 0.8% in March 2023 (seasonally adjusted)
Sales volumes up 0.7% from February 2023 (seasonally adjusted)
Median days to sell down 7.3% in March 2023 (seasonally adjusted)
The key numbers...
- House prices fell 0.8% in March, meaning prices are now 17% below their November 2021 peak. In Auckland, house prices fell 0.9% from February to be 22% lower than November 2021 (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- Despite persistent declines for the last 16 consecutive months, nationwide house prices are still 20% higher than in January 2020 (seasonally adjusted).
- House prices fell fastest in Northland and Marlborough in the March quarter, both down 4.5% from the December quarter. These regions were closely followed by Manawatū-Whanganui and Auckland, where prices fell 3.9% and 3.8% respectively (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- House sales totalled 5,877 in March, a 0.7% increase from February after adjusting for seasonal effects. Although up from last month, sales activity is still soft, with house sales down 15% compared to March 2022.
- The median sales period was 45 days in March, a 7.3% fall from February once adjusted for seasonal effects. February’s median of 60 days was unusually high due to disruption caused by Cyclone Gabrielle.
Sales activity still very soft in early 2023
Monthly house sales, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Although house sales activity picked up in March, overall sales volumes remain very low and are similar to the sales activity which immediately followed the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes.
- With a larger-than-expected OCR increase by the Reserve Bank in early April we now expect the OCR to peak at 5.75%. We have upgraded our forecast for mortgage rates and now expect one-year fixed rates to get as high as 7.5% at the end of 2023.
- Higher mortgage rates will continue to push prices down over the next 6-9 months, and we expect the total peak-to-trough decline will hit 21% before house prices start to moderate.
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