Real estate statistics
Housing market correction continues as prices fall further in January
14 Feb 2023
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 14 Feb 2023)
House prices down 0.9% in January 2023 (seasonally adjusted)
House prices in New Zealand, excluding Auckland, fell 1.2% from December 2022 (seasonally adjusted)
House sales down 27% compared to January 2022
The key numbers...
- National house prices fell 0.9% in January 2023, with house prices outside of Auckland falling slightly faster, down 1.2% from last month (both figures seasonally adjusted).
- House prices in urban centres remain the primary driver of the downturn in national house prices, with Auckland and Wellington house prices falling 18% and 21%pa respectively in the three months ended January 2023.
- January is typically a slow month for house sales, but sales volumes increased 16% from December 2022 after accounting for seasonal effects, despite sales in January 2023 falling 27% compared to January 2022.
- The average numbers of days taken to sell a house fell 0.3% in January 2023 on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, the average number of days taken to sell a house over the year ended January 2023 increased to nearly 44 days, the longest period since October 2011.
House prices down across the country
REINZ House Price Index, 3-month annual % change
...and our reaction
- House prices are now more than 16% lower than their peak in November 2021. Wellington and Auckland were the areas with the largest price falls over the last year, as lower affordability in the larger urban centres drove faster declines in these areas in the year to January 2023.
- Sales activity was less downbeat in January month but remains at very low levels. Sales over the year ended January 2023 declined to 61,600, the lowest annual total since December 2011.
- We anticipate the Reserve Bank will continue to hike the Official Cash Rate in the first half of 2023, which is likely to increase mortgage rates further. We also expect high inflation will limit the amount that potential home buyers are able to save. The squeeze on budgets caused by the combined effect of rising mortgage rates and high inflation means affordability will remain a key concern for home buyers in 2023, continuing the downward pressure on house prices this year.
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