Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Wed 18 Jan 2023)
House prices down 1.1% in December 2022 (sa)
House sales now down 39%pa
Properties available for sale up 55%pa
The key numbers...
- A 1.1% fall in house prices in December (seasonally adjusted) extended the run of consecutive declines to 13 months, the longest string on record.
- Nationwide house prices are now 15% below the peak in November 2021, the largest fall in house prices on record. However, prices are still 24% higher than at the start of 2020.
- Monthly house sales continue to fall substantially and are now down 39% from a year ago. On a seasonally adjusted basis, house sales in December 2022 were the fifth lowest ever, only higher than two lockdown-affected months, and two months in 2008 when the housing market was majorly affected by the Global Financial Crisis.
- The number of properties available for sale is now at its highest level since the end of 2015 (seasonally adjusted), according to realestate.co.nz data. Over the last year, the number of available properties has increased 55%. However, new listings are down nearly 26%pa.
House prices continue to fall
House prices, monthly % change, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Over the last 13 months, house prices have fallen by 1.2% per month on average (seasonally adjusted), meaning that the 1.1% fall in December is still part of an orderly decline.
- Looking through the number of sales, new listings, and houses available for sale, it seems there are fewer current owners who are wanting or needing to sell in the face of the mortgage rate increases so far, as evidenced by recent falls in listings. Those houses currently on the market are taking longer to shift, with a 37% increase in the median number of days to sell.
- Although the 15% fall in house prices from their peak is the largest decline on record, there’s still further to go. Further signalled interest rate increases will see house prices continue to fall throughout most or all of 2023.
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