Real estate statistics
Housing downturn continues despite fixed mortgage rates falling
13 Sept 2022
Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 13 Sept 2022)
House prices down 1.3% (sa) in August
Sales volumes 18% lower than August 2021
Properties on the market for 5.6% (sa) longer than in July
The key numbers...
- National house prices fell 1.3% between July and August, with prices in Auckland down 0.9%. Prices in Auckland have now fallen 16% from their peak in November 2021. Over the same period, prices outside Auckland have fallen 7.4% (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- The number of sales edged up 0.9% in August (seasonally adjusted), but sales volumes are still well below the levels seen this time last year, even though August 2021 was affected by the Delta lockdown. House sales in Auckland, Canterbury, and Wellington were down 39%, 13%, and 3.2%pa respectively.
- Sales activity in the provincial North Island is high compared to August 2021, with sales in Gisborne, Taranaki, and Hawke’s Bay up 73%, 25%, and 21%pa respectively.
- Properties continue to take longer to sell, with the median days to sell increasing to 49 days in August. Excluding the outliers of February 2011 (earthquake) and May 2020 (lockdown), and adjusting for the usual seasonal variation in sales times, the rate of turnover was the slowest since March 2009.
Signs of slow housing market persist in August
Median days to sell, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- The housing market slump continued in August. The downturn in Auckland has tended to lead the rest of the country, but the 0.9% monthly price fall in the region was the smallest this year. Relative momentum between Auckland and the rest of the country might have shifted, with prices outside Auckland declining faster for only the second time this year.
- Weak activity in the housing market, characterised by low sales volumes and properties remaining on the market for long periods, indicates some sellers are still resistant to lowering their price to complete a sale. Many sellers are happy to maintain their asking price and wait an average of more than six weeks for a buyer.
- August’s weak housing market figures occurred despite fixed mortgage rates easing across the board. However, recent rises in longer-term wholesale rates suggest further increases to fixed rates are likely. We expect high mortgage rates will maintain downward pressure on the housing market, with nationwide house prices continuing to decline until at least mid-2023.
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