Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 11 Aug 2022)
Auckland house prices fall 2.7% (sa) in July
Sales volumes down 16% from start of 2022
Properties available for sale have doubled over the last year
The key numbers...
- National house prices fell a further 1.4% in July 2022 (seasonally adjusted), meaning prices across the country are now down 9.6% from their peak in November 2021.
- Auckland is a key driver of weaker prices, with prices in the Super City down 2.7% in July, leaving prices sitting 15% below their peak. Prices outside Auckland are down 5.8% below their peak.
- Five of New Zealand’s 16 regions are now showing an annual decline (Auckland, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Manawatū-Whanganui, and Wellington), with Wellington’s fall of 13%pa the largest hit.
- Sales volumes dropped a further 1.9% in July (seasonally adjusted), leaving monthly sales volumes down 16% since the start of 2022, and down 45% from peak sales in late 2020.
- Average days to sell have increased for the sixth consecutive month and remain at a decade-high (excluding lockdown periods). This slowdown has contributed to the doubling in properties available to sell over the last year, according to realestate.co.nz data.
House prices fall after a colossal run-up
REINZ House Price Index, three-month % changes (sa)
...and our reaction
- The housing market continues to decline, with July reinforcing the trend of falling sales and prices, alongside a broadening in declines outside of Auckland and Wellington.
- More regions are seeing falling prices on an annual basis, and most other regions will follow suit over the next few months, although prices in Northland and Canterbury are showing considerable resilience.
- Securing a house sale is more difficult, leaving houses sitting on the market longer, a trend that is expected to continue as buyers remain cautious about overpaying in a declining market. Buyers are also more limited in what lending they can access and service at higher mortgage rates, meaning that sellers will have to continue adjusting their prices lower if they want to make a sale.
- Nevertheless, the annual declines in house prices need to be kept in context. House prices across New Zealand are still 27% higher than in July 2020, with the regional spread ranging from 18% in Auckland to 43% in Manawatū-Whanganui.
- Importantly, the downward trends in house prices and sales don’t seem to be accelerating, reinforcing our view that although the market is set to continue falling, much more rapid falls or risks of a “crash” seem unlikely at present.
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