Real estate statistics

Downward momentum in house prices spreads

13 Jul 2022

Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Wed 13 Jul 2022)

NZ house prices down 1.6% (sa) in June
Wellington house prices down 12%pa
Total house sales dropped 5.3% (sa)

The key numbers...

  • House prices in Auckland fell 1.6% in June, with prices across the rest of New Zealand also falling 1.6% (both figures seasonally adjusted). Prices in Auckland have dropped 9.9% in the first half of 2022, with price around the rest of New Zealand down 5.5% over the same period.
  • House prices were down compared to June 2021 across five regions: Wellington (-12%), Manawatu-Whanganui (-3.0%), Auckland (-1.7%), Gisborne (-1.3%), and Hawke’s Bay (-1.3%).
  • House sales eased further in June, with sales down 5.3% (seasonally adjusted) from May. Apart from 2020’s lockdown, sales volumes have not been lower since 2011.
  • All regions recorded at least 20% fewer sales in June compared to June 2021. Sales were down 43%pa in Auckland, 39% in Wellington, and 34% in Canterbury.
  • The lack of buyers in the market has seen the stock of properties for sale increase to its highest level in over six years, with the stock up 90% from June last year
  • Median days to sell rose in June to 44 days, and after seasonal adjustment, properties are taking longer to sell than at any time since 2011 (excluding lockdowns).

Housing downturn caught on outside of Auckland

REINZ House Price Index
4265

...and our reaction

  • Other parts of the country are now starting to catch-up with the pronounced housing market downturn in Auckland and Wellington. In May and June, monthly price falls outside Auckland matched the declines seen in Auckland.
  • House sales activity remains very weak, with longer sale periods and fewer sales. Throughout 2021, a fear of missing out in the property market drove many buyers to make quick purchases, but it is clear this feeling has been replaced with a wariness about the direction of house prices and doubts about mortgage serviceability.
  • With sales volumes continuing to weaken and the stock of available homes still rising, further price falls will occur during the second half of this year and into 2023. More mortgage rate rises will further limit the amount of debt that buyers can take on and the prices they are able to pay for property.
  • The tight labour market means that the number of mortgagee sales is likely to remain low. However, sales prices will be pushed down by people needing to sell for other reasons, such as death, divorce, or other changes in family circumstances.