Real estate statistics

Price trends diverge across major cities

12 May 2022

Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 12 May 2022)

NZ ex-Auckland prices edged down 0.6% (sa) in April
Auckland prices down for fifth consecutive month, falling 2.3% (sa) in April
Total house sales were down by 0.5% (sa) in April

The key numbers...

  • Nationwide house prices dropped for the fifth consecutive month, falling 1.4% (seasonally adjusted) in April.
  • Throughout the last 5 months, Auckland prices have continued to fall faster than the rest of the country, with prices in Auckland down 2.3% (sa) in April. Excluding Auckland, prices across New Zealand were slightly down in April, falling 0.6% (sa).
  • Despite recent falls, house prices across the country remain elevated compared to April 2021, except in Wellington where prices fell 4.2%pa. Consecutive months of price falls have eroded price gains in Auckland, where prices now sit just 2.7% higher than last year. Prices in Christchurch bucked the trend of New Zealand’s other major urban centres, with Canterbury prices sitting 20% higher than prices in April 2021.
  • Sales continue to decline, with national sales volumes falling 15% (sa) over the three months to April compared to the previous three months. Declining sales were broad-based declines across every region.

Price trends diverge across major cities

REINZ House Price Index, annual % changes
4244

...and our reaction

  • The Auckland housing market continues to experience larger house price falls than the rest of New Zealand. However, price declines are spreading, with house prices outside of Auckland falling for the second consecutive month.
  • Over the last year, the house price movements in New Zealand’s three largest areas are remarkably different. Wellington house prices are lower now than last year, Auckland has experienced a slight increase, and Canterbury has experienced the nation’s fastest regional growth over the last 12 months.
  • We forecast price falls to continue through 2022, with prices at the end of the year expected to be 5.3% lower than prices at the end of 2021. Rising mortgage rates are the key driver of this expectation for declines.
  • House prices in regions that are more unaffordable, such as Auckland or Wellington, are more exposed to larger falls in the near term, with rising numbers of properties available as buyers can now borrow less than sellers are asking for. Relatively better affordability in Canterbury looks likely to support Canterbury house prices for longer.