Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 14 Apr 2022)
New Zealand (ex Auckland house prices fell 1.7% (sa) from February
Auckland house prices down 2.6% (sa) from February
Total house sales fell 8.5% (sa) from February
The key numbers...
- House prices continued their slump in March, with nationwide prices dropping 2.0% (seasonally adjusted) from February – the fourth consecutive month of price drops.
- Auckland house prices fell 2.6% (sa) from February, and with a 7.8% fall over the last four months, Auckland’s prices are now only 5.1% higher than a year ago.
- Excluding Auckland, house prices were down by 1.7% (sa) in March, suggesting that the downturn in the Auckland market is increasingly being replicated elsewhere.
- Sales dropped 8.5% (sa) from February, decreasing for the fifth month in a row. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes are now 24% lower than in October 2021 and at their weakest since 2011 (excluding lockdown-affected months).
- The number of property listings continues to grow, rising by 6.8% (sa) from February.
Auckland’s house price falls catch on elsewhere
REINZ House Price Index, monthly % changes (sa)
...and our reaction
- House prices outside Auckland experienced their largest monthly fall since April 2008, and nationwide prices recorded their fourth consecutive monthly decrease for the first time in over 13 years. Although the Auckland housing market is still experiencing a larger downturn than the rest of the country, other regions are now clearly trending in the same direction.
- The number of sales has continued to weaken across the country, with sales volumes in the March quarter at least 9% lower than in the December 2021 quarter across every region. The increasing stock of listings indicates buyers in the housing market have more options from which to choose.
- We expect Auckland will continue to lead the decline, but the market across the rest of the country will also soften further in the months ahead. Yesterday’s Monetary Policy Review indicates that interest rates will continue to rise throughout 2022 and into 2023. These mortgage rate increases, combined with other inflationary pressures on household budgets, are making it untenable for buyers to pay the high prices that prevailed in the housing market last year.
- The housing market was expecting the availability of credit to improve after a roll-back of some changes caused by amendments to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act, which made obtaining a mortgage much more difficult. However, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment’s exposure draft of the changes indicates the roll-back could be confined to two relatively minor alterations.
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