Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 18 Jan 2022)
NZ house prices down 0.3% from November (sa)
Sales fall 29%pa
Price growth in Auckland rapid reversal
The key numbers...
- For the first time since the post-COVID boom, house prices fell on a monthly basis, down 0.3% from November (seasonally adjusted). Compared to a year ago, prices are still up 23%pa, having slowed back from a peak 31% in August 2021.
- Lower Auckland prices led the drop in monthly house prices, falling 1.7% in December (seasonally adjusted) – the first monthly fall since May 2020. Monthly Auckland price increases averaged 1.9% between January and November, so the monthly fall in December was a rapid change.
- Excluding Auckland, prices across the country rose a modest 0.3% - marking the weakest month since May 2020.
- House sales have continued to fall for the sixth month in a row, with sales in December down 29%pa.
REINZ house price index
3 month APC
...and our reaction
- The housing market is now showing real signs of turning the corner, with prices show a change in momentum as sales fall further. Recent months had started to show a softening trend, however we hadn’t been comfortable to claim the housing market was beginning to turn, until this latest month of data.
- Sales have been very weak for six months now – originally this weakness was partly driven by a lack of property on the market. Higher stock and fallings sales now indicate that recent declines due to a lack of demand as fewer people can access the required levels of finance in the market.
- Realestate.co.nz data shows that the number of properties available for sale across the country were up 30%pa in December, but new listings were only up 6%pa. Falling sales highlights the weaker demand driving the decline in sales.
- Although December’s data marks a turning point for the housing market, New Zealand still remains a long way off housing ever being considered affordable again.
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