Building work put in place

Delta hits non-res harder than res construction

6 Dec 2021

Our take on the latest Building work put in place (Mon 6 Dec 2021)

Total construction activity fell 4.7%pa
Residential construction grew 1.2%pa despite lockdown
Non-res construction fell hard, down 14%pa

The key numbers...

  • September quarter building activity was hit by Delta restrictions, dropping 8.6% from the June quarter (seasonally adjusted) – a smaller fall than we anticipated.
  • Non-residential activity fell hard, down 12% (seasonally adjusted) from the June quarter, around double the 6.4% fall in residential activity (seasonally adjusted).
  • Construction was most constrained in Auckland for residential activity, down 2.5%pa. Non-residential activity was also weak in Auckland, down 22%pa.
  • Non-residential activity across the mid and lower North Island actually rose 17%pa in the September quarter, with weaker results across the rest of the country.
  • Accommodation, office, and shop construction work fell the hardest, down 30%, 26%, and 20%pa respectively, with falls of 3-5%pa for health, education, and storage activity. However, there was an impressive 23%pa rise in both factory and farm construction despite the Delta lockdown and a 2.7%pa boost for social, cultural and religious buildings.
  • Building activity has been revised upwards since June 2020, adding an additional $266m (1.8%) to activity over the June 2020 to June 2021 quarters, with 82% of the revision attributed to residential activity.

Delta hits non-res harder than res construction

Annual % change, by non-res construction type
4099

...and our reaction

  • The Delta lockdown hit to building wasn’t as bad as expected in the September quarter, with roughly six weeks of strong building from July to mid-August keeping construction levels elevated.
  • Construction efforts in Auckland are unsurprisingly hit hard, and there will be knock-on delays apparent in the December quarter data. However, building activity across the rest of the North Island appears upbeat, in line with our monitoring of general economic activity.
  • Stronger demand for domestic manufacturing and higher council investment is helping keep some building type activity elevated, although building activity in tourism-related areas is taking a back seat.
  • The upwards revision in residential construction activity, based on additional survey data for low-to-medium value projects, highlights the level of building activity underway, and also provides more certainty about actual (rather than modelled) home building.
  • The stronger building result will bolster our GDP expectations for next week, with a tough, but not as a harsh, hit to economic activity expected.