Our take on the latest Building work put in place (Thu 4 Dec 2025)
Residential volumes up 3.3% in September from June 2025 (sa)
Non-residential volumes down 1.3% in September from June 2025 (sa)
Total quarterly activity now down 5.3% from September 2024
The key numbers...
- The volume of total building work put in place rose 1.5% (seasonally adjusted) in the September 2025 quarter from June, rising for the second time this year after six consecutive quarterly declines between June 2023 and December 2024.
- The rise was due to an increase in residential activity in the quarter, which rose 2.8% from June. The increase in residential activity follows a 3.3% (revised from a 2.9% decline) fall in June from March (all figures seasonally adjusted).
- Non-residential activity declined for the fifth consecutive quarter, falling a 1.3% in September from June (seasonally adjusted). Annual growth in non-residential activity in real terms remains large and negative, down 8.1%pa in the September quarter, but the decline was the smallest since September 2024.
- Total building activity in the September quarter was 5.3% lower than a year ago for the ninth consecutive quarter but was also the smallest annual decline since March 2024.
Smallest annual decline in residential activity in two years
Annual % changes in building work put in place volumes
...and our reaction
- Residential activity was much stronger than expected in the September quarter, with activity 8.1% above our forecast. The outperformance was driven by higher new dwelling activity, coming in 8.4% above our forecast. Residential additions and alterations (A&A) work increased from the previous quarter for the second consecutive quarter. Residential A&A work had previously declined for five straight quarters. Residential A&A work was 6.5% above our forecast.
- Despite the pick-up in residential activity on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the annual decline of 2.7% was evident across the broad regions. Only the South Island (excl. Canterbury), up 10%pa, saw a rise in the September 2025 quarter compared to the September 2024 quarter. Although, the rate of decline slowed in the remaining give regions. Declines were led by Wellington (-15%), Rest of North Island (-8.0%pa), and Waikato (-5.0%pa). The smallest declines were in Auckland (-1.2%pa) and Canterbury (-3.5%pa).
- The decline in non-residential activity was slightly narrower than expected, with non-residential work coming in 1.4% above our forecast. This small overperformance was driven by factories and storage building which were $42m and $36m above our forecasts respectively. This overperformance was partially offset by a weaker than anticipated result for storage building ($38m below our forecast).
- The only broad regions which saw an annual increase in non-residential building activity were both of the South Island regions as Canterbury (+8.9%pa) and South Island (+2.6%pa) activity increased. Double digit declines were seen across Waikato (-16%pa), Rest of North Island (-12%pa), Auckland (-11%pa). Activity in Wellington (-7.9%pa) was lower than a year ago for the first time since December 2024.
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