Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 11 Nov 2021)
Prices across the country up 30%pa
Sales remain weak, but up from September
Prices in Auckland jump 4.3% from September (seas adj)
The key numbers...
- National house price inflation was 30%pa in October, with prices jumping 2.9% from September (seasonally adjusted).
- Price growth in Auckland was particularly strong in October, jumping 4.3% from September (seasonally adjusted).
- Sales across the country recovered slightly in October, up 18% from September (seasonally adjusted).
- Despite the recovery from September, sales are still showing a softening trend, down 22%pa from a year prior, and has dropped across all regions.
REINZ housing statistics
3 Month APC
...and our reaction
- The monthly growth between October and September is the fastest since February, highlighting that price growth really doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
- Although some softness in sales was caused by lockdown (hence the monthly bounce back from September), it doesn’t appear to have been the key driver as sales across the country remain below a year ago.
- A lack of supply of housing is likely to be at the heart of both the decline in sales, and the record house price growth. Broadening of the bright-line rules earlier in the year will also be crimping the supply of houses for sale.
- Fixing the supply of housing is a long-term problem, but residential consents sitting at record highs will do some work towards fixing the problem.
- We expect house price growth will soon soften, with rising interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions, and an expectation of debt-to-income restrictions to be implemented.
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