Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 14 Oct 2021)
House prices outside Auckland rose 2.6% between Aug and Sep
Sales down 38%pa
Prices in Auckland still climb 0.6% from August
The key numbers...
- National house price inflation was 30%pa in September, with prices sitting up 1.6% from August (seasonally adjusted).
- The continued lockdown in Auckland has limited price growth in the region somewhat, but prices were still up 0.6% from August (seasonally adjusted).
- The strongest house price growth in September was in Manawatū-Whanganui, with prices sitting up 46%pa.
- The most notable impact of current COVID-19 restrictions is on sales. Nationwide, house sales were down 38%pa in September, with sales down by 55%pa in Auckland.
REINZ House Price Index
Annual % changes
...and our reaction
- House price growth continues to run ahead, driven by strong demand coupled with a lack of supply of housing available to purchase.
- Despite such high house prices and unsustainable growth, mortgage repayment affordability has remained relatively constant over time because of record low interest rates.
- The relatively constant servicing costs means the current housing unaffordability is more of an intergenerational inequality issue, as housing isn’t unaffordable to those who can get help with the deposit.
- Rising interest rates might take some of the momentum out of house price growth, and the threat of debt-to-income restrictions also hangs over the market, but the key to rebalancing is an increase in the available supply.
- With consents currently running at all-time highs, the housing undersupply should start be reduced across the country over the next couple of years.
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