Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 14 Sept 2021)
House price inflation still at 2% per month
Sales volumes drop 27%pa due to lockdown
Still few signs of any slowdown
The key numbers...
- Nationwide house prices in August were up 31% from a year ago, continuing their growth even through lockdown.
- There’s no signs yet of any slowing in house price growth, with August’s prices up 2.0% from July on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- All regions of New Zealand recorded house price growth of at least 25%pa. The fastest growth was in the Manawatū-Whanganui region, where house prices were sitting 47% higher than a year ago.
- Unsurprisingly, the Level 4 lockdown limited sales activity, with a 27%pa fall across the country. All regions saw a decline in sales from August 2020.
Still no slowdown in sight
Monthly % change, seasonally adjusted, REINZ House Price Index
...and our reaction
- Although New Zealanders hunkered down across the country during Lockdown 2.0, house prices weren’t doing the same. Intense heat remains in the housing market.
- Since June 2020, monthly house price growth has been consistently above 1.0%, with this 15-month period the longest stretch of 1%+ monthly growth on record (since the early 1990s).
- Lockdown hasn’t dampened enthusiasm for housing, only delayed the ability for people to get all the paperwork filed. With property volumes available for sale still at minimal levels, demand will continue to outstrip supply.
- A range of factors should temper activity over the next year, including expectations around higher interest rates, changes to lending access as the Reserve Bank looks to tighten loan-to-value ratio restrictions and introduce debt-to-income limits, slower population growth, and high levels of residential building.
- But at present, the demand for property remains above what the market is supplying, meaning that prices will continue to rise for a while yet.
Latest updates
Premium
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