Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 12 Aug 2021)
House price inflation above 30%pa
Lower trend for sales volumes
"Slowdown" talk appears overblown
The key numbers...
- House prices continue to rise around New Zealand, with the house price index up 2.4% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis. National house prices are now sitting nearly 31% higher than a year ago.
- Auckland prices helped underpin nationwide growth, with a 3.3% monthly rise (seasonally adjusted). Other regional price trends were broadly unchanged, with Manawatū-Whanganui (49%), Wellington (40%), and Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay (35%) the fastest growers.
- Sales volumes are showing a weaker trend, with seasonally adjusted sales down 5.5% from June. Annual comparisons are difficult, with July 2020 seeing catch-up sales from time spent in higher Alert Level.
- Realestate.co.nz data shows that the stock of properties available for sale is sitting nearly 35% lower than a year earlier, and 65% below the long-term average.
Monthly house price changes
Monthly % change, seasonally adjusted, REINZ House Price Index
...and our reaction
- Talk of a “slowdown” in house price growth appears to be overblown, with price increases at best stabilising, and at higher levels than those seen over the last five years.
- Actual house price growth always slows down in winter, and surges higher in summer, but seasonally adjusted price movements show a different story. House price gains at the end of 2020 and start of 2021 were incredibly high, and so current price growth is admittedly slower than those levels.
- But current price growth is also still higher than price growth observed in general between the start of 2017 and start of 2020. Annual price rises continue to point to rampant growth, and it’s too early to declare any sign of success so far on efforts to cool the market.
- Lower sales volumes highlight the supply constraints from low property inventories, which look set to keep a lid on property transactions, with the bright line test extensions over time set to limit people wanting to sell property to avoid an otherwise large tax bill.
- Expectations for higher interest rates, alongside current regulatory policies (removal of interest rate deductibility, high LVRs), further regulatory limits (recently announced lower levels of high-LVR lending and Debt-to-Income limits), slower population growth, and a high build rate, all set the stage for slower house price growth over time.
- The battle for slower house price growth has begun, but it’s too soon to pick a victor.
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