Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 13 Jul 2021)
House price inflation at 30%pa
Sales volumes tick back up
Higher interest rates likely sooner than previously thought
The key numbers...
- House price inflation remains at obscene levels, with prices sitting 30% higher than a year ago, and up 1.1% from May (seasonally adjusted).
- House price growth is strong in all areas of the country, with growth rates above 25%pa in all regions except Southland (24%pa). The fastest growth rates are in Manawatū-Whanganui and Wellington (49% and 42%pa respectively).
- Sales volumes had shown signs of softening recently, but they ticked back up in June, sitting 1.8% higher than May (seasonally adjusted) and 6.2% higher than a year ago.
- In contrast to prices, growth in sales was a mixed bag across the regions, with sales still declining in many regions. Limited stocks remain a major factor, as fewer houses available pushes prices up and sales numbers down.
REINZ House Price Index
Annual % changes
...and our reaction
- We are yet to see any effect on prices of the Reserve Bank’s reintroduction of loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions. The effect of these restrictions is being offset by incredibly low interest rates, which are keeping mortgage repayments affordable (despite such high prices making the initial deposit a barrier for many).
- The government’s rule change to investors is obviously having an impact on investors decisions, with investors accounting for a smaller share of new lending, but we are yet to see this shift translate into any softness in prices.
- With a stronger-than-expected economy, a tight labour market, and supply side constraints, expectations of inflation are becoming more pressing. We know that a short-term spike in inflation is almost certain, but whether this blip becomes something more sustained is something the Reserve Bank will be keeping a very keen eye on.
- Expectations of sustained inflation will lead to an earlier increase in interest rates, with some picking a rise later this year, which will almost certainly cool the housing market if LVRs and government policy continue to have limited effect.
Latest updates
Premium
Real estate statistics
Conflict continues to drag on housing market in June
Wed 15 Jul 2026
Monthly
8.8% House sales between Feb and Jun 2026 (seas adj)0.8% House prices since February (seas adj)4.8% Stock of homes for sale since February (seas adj)Premium
Real estate statistics
House buyers dry up ahead of interest rate rises
Mon 15 Jun 2026
Monthly
13%pa House sales in May 20260.6%pa House prices from May 2025Stock of homes for sale at an 11-year highReal estate statistics
House prices and sales fall
Thu 14 May 2026
Monthly
7.9%pa House sales in Apr 20260.5% House prices from Mar 2026 (sa)1.2% Stock of homes for sale since Feb 2026 (sa)Real estate statistics
Housing market in a holding pattern
Thu 16 Apr 2026
Monthly
+0.2% House prices from Mar 2025-0.1% House sales from Mar 2025+0.2% Stock of homes for sale from Feb 2026 (sa)