Our take on the latest National population estimates (Tue 18 May 2021)
Total NZ population estimate
5,116,350
As at March 2021
Population growth slows to 0.7%pa
Annual net migration down to 6,561
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s resident population is estimated to have grown by just 0.7% since March 2020, with data now showing an entire year of closed borders and minimal migration. This population growth rate is the slowest since the end of 2012.
- Annual net migration has plunged in the last quarter, from 41,100 in December 2020, to 6,500 in March 2021. As the large increase in migrants coming into New Zealand before COVID-19 moves out of the annual numbers, net migration has now collapsed by 93%.
- For the first time since 2014, natural increase (births minus deaths) is now the biggest contributor to population growth after the dramatic slowdown in annual net migration.
- The Level 4 lockdown doesn’t seem to have significantly increased the number of births in the March 2021 quarter, with the population aged under 15 years of age remains flat.
Population change
Year-end-contributors to population change
...and our reaction
- As the boom of migrants at the beginning of 2020 moves out of the numbers, annual net migration has dropped to very low levels. With closed borders, and indication of a slow and cautious approach to reopening, we don’t expect net migration to pick up significantly before 2023.
- Skilled labour remains a major concern for many businesses, particularly in the construction industry, especially as consents reach record highs. With next to no migration and almost no growth in the working age population, these capacity constraints are likely to remain.
- Over time, lower trend net migration will limit additional demand for housing, and in part drives our expectations for slower house price growth in future years.
- The much-anticipated immigration speech by Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash (in Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi’s absence) failed to deliver any meaningful new announcements or changes to migration settings and therefore does not change our expectations on migration or population growth going forward at present.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 2026
0.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter
14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025National population estimates
Population growth now just 0.7%pa
Tue 19 Aug 2025
Quarterly
5,324,700 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2025
Population grows 0.7%pa in June 2025 quarterNet migration eases to 13,700 for year ending June 2025