Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 13 May 2021)
House price growth 27%pa
Seasonally adjusted sales fall 9.9%
Housing announcement hasn't hit prices yet
The key numbers...
- The national house price index rose 27%pa in April 2021. The government’s housing announcement in late March had little effect on prices nationally in April, with prices still up 2.0% from March (seasonally adjusted).
- House price growth is being felt relatively evenly across the country, with prices in all regions still showing strong growth on a year ago.
- We are starting to see a loss of momentum in sales, however. Sales in April fell 9.9% from March (seasonally adjusted). This decline in sales was felt in almost all regions and there was a notably sharp decline in Auckland (down 15% from March, seasonally adjusted).
Sales starting to show signs of slowing
Seasonally adjusted monthly house sales (REINZ)
...and our reaction
- April’s real estate figures didn’t show the sharp change in the housing market that many were expecting after the government’s big housing announcement.
- Strong momentum and cheap credit are likely to be responsible for continued house price growth, but there are early signs of a change coming through in sales numbers.
- There were many anecdotes of emptier auction houses and fewer investors through open homes in April. Weaker sales and less demand will eventually translate into a softening of house price growth across the country.
- If record high residential consents successfully translate into activity, the increased supply of available houses will also contribute to a future softening of house price growth. However, supply chain disruptions and capacity constraints remain a major concern for the construction industry.
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