Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 15 Apr 2021)
House price growth now at 24%pa
Seasonally adjusted sales flat
Effect of housing announcement still to be seen
The key numbers...
- House sales in March 2021 were up 31% from a year earlier, with growth accelerating after a sluggish start to the year.
- However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales numbers are flat, and sitting lower than levels that prevailed in the last two months of 2020.
- Auckland sales rose 50%pa to a whopping 3,872 – the second-largest monthly total for Auckland (3,933 in May 2003 is the record).
- The national House Price Index rose 24%pa in March, with all areas showing stronger growth in the last month, especially the Hawke’s Bay/Gisborne (32%pa), Manawatū-Whanganui (32%), and Wellington (31%) regions.
House sales sitting a little lower
Monthly house sales, New Zealand, seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- March figures appear to show housing activity that is still strong, but there are early signs that previous changes are taking the froth off the top of the market.
- Seasonally adjusted sales levels are below what was seen at the end of 2020, seasonally adjusted price increases have slowed back a touch too, and seasonally adjusted days to sell are showing a fairly flat trend over the last few months.
- All but a few of these sales predate the government’s housing announcement, and so we believe the slight shift in momentum in the market is due to 30% loan-to-value ratio restrictions (LVRs) for investors being reintroduced.
- Bigger changes to property investor activities will show through over the next few months, and although we expect a sharp slowdown in prices, we’re not picking a huge exodus from the market or a collapse in prices.
- It’s important to note that REINZ figures for March 2020 showed little effect from the first six days of the Alert Level 4 lockdown, but April and May numbers were massively influenced. As a result, it will be more difficult than usual to get a clear read on housing market trends from figures over the next two months.
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