Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 11 Mar 2021)
House price growth now at 21%pa
Sales up 15%pa
Days to sell second lowest (sa) on record
The key numbers...
- House price inflation accelerated further in February, to 21%pa, as pressure continues to build in the property market.
- Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay still leads house price growth regionally (at 30%pa), but Wellington and Manawatū-Whanganui (both 29%pa) are challenging for first place. After a breather in January, Auckland prices surged 5.2% in February (seasonally adjusted) to be up 21% from a year earlier.
- Sales activity partially recovered from the weak January result, but seasonally adjusted volumes are still 10% down from the levels averaged in the second half of 2020.
- Regional sales results were a mixed bag, with Auckland, Waikato, Taranaki, and much of the South Island showing an increase in sales from a year earlier, but Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, and Wellington all showing sales drops.
- National days to sell dropped to 26.5 (seasonally adjusted) – the second-lowest result on record, just shy of the 26.4 days in September 2003.
House prices continue their frenzied pace
House price index, annual % change
...and our reaction
- House prices have continued their frenzied pace in February, with the speed of activity in the housing market reinforcing that strong feelings of FOMO are still apparent.
- The further fall in the time taken to sell a house underscores how frantic the property sector is at present, with everyone wanting to secure a deal now, before prices rise tomorrow.
- Although house prices have continued their ferocious climb, the level of activity at present might also reflect a rush to get in and settle sales ahead of loan-to-value changes being implemented in March, with a further tightening occurring in May.
- February’s results might be the last hurrah of some investors purchasing more property. We expect that lower investor activity in coming months will slow, but not stop, further house price growth.
- Increases in wholesale interest rates in recent weeks will be focusing the attention of buyers on their ability to service a mortgage if retail rates also rise. The potential for higher mortgage rates could limit the amount of debt that people are willing to take on, constraining further price rises.
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