Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Fri 15 Jan 2021)
NZ house prices up 17%pa
Auckland sales rise 66%pa
Record low stocks across NZ
The key numbers...
- New Zealand’s housing market continue to roar away, with house prices rising by 17%pa in December – the fastest growth in just over five years.
- Auckland house price growth further accelerated to 18%pa in December, and price growth in all regions except Otago (8.1%pa) is in double digits.
- Auckland sales rose an incredible 66%pa in December, the fastest annual growth since April 2002, with this growth underpinning nationwide sales growth of 37%pa.
- All areas except Tasman, Nelson, and Marlborough showed strong growth in sales volumes, with the West Coast (55%pa), Canterbury (46%), and Waikato (39%) the next fastest growing regions.
- Realestate.co.nz data shows housing stock at record lows, with the 12,932 houses available for purchase in December representing just one third of the long-term average. Although new listings were up 19%pa in December, the strength in demand and sales more than outweighs new stock coming online.
House prices roar ahead
REINZ house price index
...and our reaction
- The housing market continues to become even hotter, with continued rising unaffordability for those trying to get on the housing ladder.
- Ongoing house price rises have brought more sellers into the market, but sellers are still outnumbered by the swarms of buyers who are looking to purchase before prices rise even further.
- Low interest rates are fanning the flames in the housing market, and although construction levels are working to reduce the housing shortfall, this increase in supply will take time.
- House prices are now growing at their fastest rate since just before tougher LVRs were introduced for Auckland investors in late 2015.
- We can see a mounting case for tougher LVRs restrictions, of 40% deposits for investors, to take more heat out of the housing market.
- Given the housing market’s heat, we expect the government to announce new policies in the first half of this year to try and limit housing demand and increase supply. However, the intense political pressure means that this response might be a poorly thought through knee-jerk reaction with limited effectiveness.
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