Building work put in place

An unconvincing bounce back

4 Dec 2020

Our take on the latest Building work put in place (Fri 4 Dec 2020)

Total construction activity down 0.6%pa
Residential construction up 4.2%pa
Non-residential construction down 7.2%pa

The key numbers...

  • Total building activity rose 35% (seasonally adjusted) from June’s plunge in activity, as builders regained momentum.
  • Overall, annual work put in place is sitting 0.6% lower than a year prior. 
  • The rebound in activity was led by residential construction, which sat 4.2%pa higher than a year ago. Residential construction was particularly strong in Auckland, with residential construction activity up 9.7%pa in the region.
  • Weakness in non-residential building activity was largely due to a substantial decline in retail building activity, which sat 25%pa lower, with $92m less building taking place in the September quarter.
  • Surprisingly, accommodation building was one of the two build types to have grown in September, likely as work was completed that was already well underway before COVID-19 hit the economy. Education building was the only other non-residential building type to grow from a year ago.

Work put in place

Annual % changes, Sept 1999 prices
3783

...and our reaction

  • Residential building activity was responsible for all growth in total work put in place the quarter, with non-residential building not showing signs of strong activity.
  • We’re taking the residential figures with a large pinch of salt – this category relies heavily on modelled data, with 71% of residential activity in the quarter modelled off building consents. 
  • The modelling isn’t able to account for any changes in Auckland activity during the Alert Level 3 period, supply chain issues hitting the sector, capacity constraints at such high build levels, or works not going ahead or delayed. 
  • Although residential activity is responsible for driving growth in the September 2020 quarter, these estimates could be revised down, leading to a weaker but more accurate picture of building activity in September. 
  • However, looking forward we can expect residential building activity to hold up well, as the booming housing market has highlighted the significant housing shortage and consequently, residential consents are still growing strongly. 
  • With signs of weakening non-residential consents, we could expect non-residential activity to remain subdued. Upside risks are present depending on the government’s ability to invest in non-residential building. 
  • Overall, work put in place in the September quarter was above our expectations, but still has some way to go to catch up the drop in activity due to COVID-19.