Real estate statistics

It sure would be nice to own a house

13 Oct 2020

Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 13 Oct 2020)

House prices rise to record highs
Sales volumes up 37%pa
Mortgage rates likely to fall further

The key numbers...

  • House prices across the country in September were up 2.1% from August (seasonally adjusted), pushing NZ prices up 11% from a year prior.
  • House prices rose to record highs in September in all regions except Manawatū-Whanganui and Otago. 
  • The fastest house price growth was seen in Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay, where prices are sitting 16% higher than in September 2019.
  • The number of houses sold also jumped 37%pa in September, driven by Auckland where the number of sales sat 53% higher than a year ago.

REINZ House Price Index

Annual % changes
3718

...and our reaction

  • We are currently seeing huge demand for housing, partially driven by Kiwis who have returned home since the beginning of the pandemic, coupled with incredibly accommodating monetary policy settings as interest rates sit at record lows.
  • The juxtaposition of COVID-19 and skyrocketing house prices is furthering the divergence in financial outcomes between those who own homes and those who do not, worsening the inequalities that already exist. 
  • Indicators to date suggest the job losses from the COVID-19 pandemic are being felt disproportionately by Māori and Pacific peoples, who are already under-represented in homeownership statistics and are therefore the least likely to benefit from rising house prices.
  • Current monetary policy tools are likely to exacerbate these issues of inequality as interest rates fall further, pushing up prices for houses and shares. However, lower interest rates are unlikely to stoke business investment and improve employment opportunities in the near term because of the high levels of uncertainty in the economy.