Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Mon 15 Jun 2020)
House sales fell 47%pa
House prices down 1.6% (sa) since March
Median days to sell increases by 24 days
The key numbers...
- There was 14 days of Level 3 lockdown in May, restricting the number of sales nationwide to 3,990, 47%pa less than in May 2019.
- The fall in sales was widespread across the country ranging from a 63% decline in Tasman to a 37%pa decline in Manawatū-Whanganui.
- House prices rose again in May, albeit at a slower rate of 7.9%pa, compared to 8.5%pa growth in April. It’s hard to get a good read on house prices given weak sales volumes, but after seasonal adjustment prices fell 0.2% from April and are 1.6% lower than in March – the biggest two-month drop since 2008.
- The median number of days to sell jumped from 34 days in April to 58 in May, which is a 60% increase (seasonally adjusted).
Number of houses sold
Real Estate Institute
...and our reaction
- Lockdown restrictions still heavily affected the ease to buy and sell a house in May and no substantial resurgence in sales occurred. These delays are also massively skewing the median days to sell, and June is likely to show more of a bounce back.
- Nevertheless, with the looming recession and anticipation by many that house prices will fall, many buyers will be put off, particularly property investors.
- Getting a read on house prices is harder considering the low volume of sales but compared to the start of 2020 house price growth has begun to soften. We expect mounting job losses and the end of the mortgage holiday scheme in September to put downwards pressure on house prices as the financial stress of households continues to grow.
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