Building work put in place

Strong residential intentions not flowing through

5 Dec 2019

Our take on the latest Building work put in place (Thu 5 Dec 2019)

Growth in Auckland residential building slowed to 5%pa
Non-residential construction grew 13%pa
Accommodation building up 41%pa

The key numbers...

  • The total volume of construction across New Zealand grew 7.7%pa in the September quarter, similar to 7.8%pa growth in the June quarter.
  • Non-residential construction was the outstanding performer, growing at 13%pa, while residential construction disappointed, with growth easing from 6.3% in the previous quarter to 4.4%pa in the September quarter.
  • Auckland, Waikato, and Wellington were the stand-out regions for non-residential construction, growing 35%, 33% and 26%pa respectively. In contrast, Canterbury’s non-residential construction has now been in decline for a year, down 5.7% in the September quarter.
  • Auckland’s residential growth slowed from 16% in the June quarter to 5%pa in the September quarter.
  • By building type, accommodation grew the fastest, up 41%pa. Shops, warehouses, and factories were other top performers, growing 35%, 28%, and 25%pa respectively.

Work put in place

Annual % changes, Sept 1999 prices
3469

...and our reaction

  • Total growth in the construction industry remains solid despite being marginally below our expectations, mainly because of a weak result in residential building. However, this residential weakness was mitigated by strength in non-residential construction.
  • The dichotomy of non-residential construction outperforming residential construction was most pronounced in Auckland.
  • Weaker-than-expected residential construction volumes could mean either weak buyer demand, capacity constraints, or developers stalling the progress between consent and completion.
  • Residential dwelling consent numbers are at their highest level since the 1970s, suggesting buyer demand is there.
  • Declining house prices in Auckland over the past year may have deterred some developers in the supercity, but capacity constraints are likely to be contributing to the softness.
  • Client feedback suggests demand for products in the residential space has slowed since mid-2019, which is consistent with softness in the work put in place numbers.