Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Fri 13 Dec 2019)
NZ house prices climbed to 5.6%pa in November
Auckland house prices recovered, growing 2.7%pa
Sales volumes eased 1.9%pa
The key numbers...
- New Zealand house prices accelerated in November growing at 5.6%pa, the fastest rate since May 2017.
- The recovery of Auckland’s house prices, growing at 2.7%pa, is significant considering the previous 13 months of decline, and was the main source of heat in the housing market.
- Prices outside of Auckland were up 8.3%pa, with every region showing positive house price inflation. Significant increases were in Southland (up 21%) and Manawatū-Whanganui (up 20%pa). These two regions have had strong and sustained growth for the past three years.
- Sales slipped in November, down 1.9%pa across New Zealand. Auckland saw reasonable growth in sales (up 8.7%), but sales in the rest of New Zealand fell 6.1%pa.
Number of houses sold
3 month annual % changes
...and our reaction
- We had been anticipating a recovery in the Auckland housing market in recent months, but the extent of house price recovery in November took us by surprise.
- More sales in Auckland over the last three months suggests buyers have become willing to re-enter the market.
- The Reserve Bank’s decision not to ease the loan-to-value restrictions (LVRs) appears reasonable considering the fire doesn’t need fuel in the current low interest rate climate.
- Banks are required to start increasing their capital holdings from July 2020. Capital equalling $20b will be accumulated over the next seven years to provide more buffer from financial uncertainty. Though more spread out than the initial five-year timeframe, this regulation will put upward pressure on retail lending rates.
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