Our take on the latest Labour market statistics (Wed 6 Nov 2019)
Unemployment rate jumps back up to 4.2%
Employment growth slows to 0.9%pa
Labour cost growth rises to 2.4%pa
The key numbers...
- The unemployment rate jumped back up to 4.2% (seasonally adjusted) in the September 2019 quarter, after June’s surprisingly low 3.9% result.
- Although the unemployment rate rose, the underutilisation rate fell to 10.4% (seasonally adjusted) which is its lowest rate since June 2008!
- The fall in the underutilisation rate was due to a fall in the number of workers who wanted to work more hours in their current job.
- Labour cost growth shot up to 2.4%pa, which reinforces our view about the tightness being felt in the labour market. Most of this cost growth came from the public sector, where labour costs were 3.0%pa higher.
Working workers longer
Seasonally adjusted
...and our reaction
- Although it is important not to read too much into a single result and instead pay more attention to underlying trends, the weak labour market result this quarter does fall in line with the underlying sentiment of a slowing economy.
- The divergence between the unemployment rate and underutilisation rate implies that employers are looking to squeeze more out of their current staff before looking to hire externally. This aversion to new hires is likely because, although firms need more labour, they feel too uncertain about the future to take on new workers.
- Today’s weaker labour market result does strengthen the likelihood of another cut to the Official Cash Rate next week by the Reserve Bank and reinforces calls for more fiscal stimulus to support the economy.
Latest updates
Premium
Labour market statistics
Unemployment jumps higher than expected
Wed 5 Aug 2026
Quarterly
5.6% Unemployment rate in the June 2026 quarter (s.a.)70.7% Participation rate the highest in over a year0.5% Employment growth in June from March (s.a.)Premium
Labour market statistics
More people, more working, more not participating
Wed 6 May 2026
Quarterly
5.3% Unemployment rate eased slightly in the March 2026 quarter
70.4% Participation rate fell slightly0.2% Employment rose in March from December (s.a.)Labour market statistics
Higher participation drives unemployment increase
Wed 4 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5.4% Unemployment rate December 2025 quarter (sa)70.5% Participation rate December 2025 quarter (sa)2.0%pa Labour Cost Index Year to December 2025Labour market statistics
Unemployment rate rises to 5.3%
Wed 5 Nov 2025
Quarterly
Unemployment rate edges up to 5.3%Youth NEET rate rises to 13.2% (annual average)Labour cost growth slows to 2.1%pa