Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Thu 14 Nov 2019)
NZ house price growth rose to 3.9%pa
Auckland house prices poised for a recovery
Sales volumes down 4.0%pa in October
The key numbers...
- House price growth rose to 3.9%pa in October 2019, continuing to build momentum from a low of 1.4% in April 2019.
- The rate of decline in Auckland prices has slowed further, with prices falling just 0.7%pa in October.
- Outside of Auckland house prices continue to heat up, rising 8.2%pa in October. Notable increases were in Southland (up 21%) and Manawatū-Whanganui (up 19%pa).
- The number of sales wavered in October, down 4%pa, after a strong start to spring in September.
- Some regions, like Southland, Northland, and Wellington, continue to see a sustained decline in sales, with sales volumes dropping 8.0%pa, 6.0%, and 2.6% over the 12 months to October 2019.
REINZ House Price Index
Annual % changes
...and our reaction
- The housing market is undergoing a re-balancing act as many regions where the median house price is below the national average have seen both sales and prices ticking up. This trend is most prominent for Southland, Gisborne, and Manawatū-Whanganui.
- Auckland house prices, which are by far the highest for any region, are still in decline and showing signs they will continue easing for longer than previously expected.
- The Reserve Bank surprised markets yesterday by not lowering the OCR, but this is unlikely to have a material impact on future borrowing decisions given how low interest rates currently are.
- More important will be whether the Reserve Bank cuts loan-to-value ratio (LVR) restrictions again at the end of November, and what decisions are made around bank capital holding requirements, which have more potential to create resurgence in the housing market.
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