Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Tue 15 Oct 2019)
NZ house price growth rose to 3.5%pa
Slide in Auckland house prices is slowing
Sales volumes up 4.5% in September
The key numbers...
- House price growth rose to 3.5%pa in September 2019, having slowed over the last year.
- The rate of decline in Auckland prices has slowed, with a drop of only 0.8%pa in September. Prices outside Auckland are also regaining steam, with NZ-ex Auckland price growth rising to 7.3%pa – the strongest in six months.
- Sales also showed a spring in their step, with growth of 4.5%pa across the country in September.
- Auckland sales rose 9.2%pa in September, taking quarterly sales growth to 6.2%pa, the fastest growth in a year.
- Some regions, like Gisborne and Southland, saw further declines in sales, as data from realestate.co.nz shows historically low sales inventories.
REINZ House Price Index
Auckland, Annual % changes
...and our reaction
- House prices appear to have turned a corner, with an uptick in price growth over the last two months across the country indicating more momentum is returning to the housing market.
- Annual house price inflation in Auckland could turn positive again as soon as next month, and house price growth outside Auckland is also gathering speed again.
- An easing of loan-to-value (LVR) restrictions at the start of 2019, alongside lower interest rates, have made purchasing both more achievable and more palatable for some potential buyers, despite housing unaffordability issues keeping purchasing out of reach for many.
- We expect the Reserve Bank to further loosen LVR restrictions in November (becoming operational in early 2020) and, coupled with still lower interest rates to come, this change will drive a rebound in the housing market over 2020.
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