Our take on the latest National population estimates (Wed 12 Jun 2019)
Annual net migration estimate
55,834
As of April 2019
Downward revisions continue
Our last migration release (for now)
The key numbers...
- We have decided to stop covering net migration in our monthly news releases. We believe the volatility in the most recent months of StatsNZ’s estimates makes this release of little value to you, our clients. However, we are aware StatsNZ is continuing to refine and improve its model, and we will keep an eye on their output to decide if it is worthwhile restarting this release.
- The continual downward revisions lead us to believe StatsNZ’s model is overcooking its figures, particularly in the last seven months of their estimates (currently from October 2018 onwards).
- The downward trend in StatsNZ’s less volatile portion (until June 2018) of the migration estimate gives us confidence that net migration is continuing to fall.
- However, throughout all StatsNZ estimates in recent months, they have been consistent in estimating June to be a trough in net migration. Whether there is any merit to this, we will wait and see.
- In contrast to the trough predicted by StatsNZ, policy settings and underlying macroeconomic conditions suggest net migration should be continuing to decline.
Annual Net Migration
...and our reaction
- StatsNZ’s provisional estimate of annual net migration in April was 55,834. This figure is up from 55,103 in March (which had been estimated at 56,136 a month earlier).
- April’s net migration estimate is less volatile than it has been in previous months, but it is important to note it was still revised downwards, particularly in the recent months.
- StatsNZ’s estimate of net migration trends downwards until June 2018. The upward tick in net migration estimates begins only in the later, more variable, and less trustworthy portion of StatsNZ’s provisional estimates. Over 25,000 passenger movements are still required to be modelled for June 2018, rising to 591,000 for April 2019.
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