Our take on the latest Real estate statistics (Fri 14 Dec 2018)
Annual house sales growth just 2.6%pa
House price growth has slowed to 3.5%pa
Auckland prices down 0.6%pa
The key numbers...
- The fall in house sales volumes between October and November (seasonally adjusted) appears to confirm that October’s strong result was a one-off caused by looming rule changes for foreign buyers.
- The Reserve Bank’s move to loosen loan-to-value restrictions from January 2019 and low mortgage rates could contribute to some sales growth next year, but affordability remains a significant constraint for many potential buyers.
- We expect house price growth will continue to slow, with prices falling 5% by the end of 2020, as increased residential construction reduces the undersupply of housing.
Number of houses sold
Source: REINZ
...and our reaction
- House sales volumes returned to more “normal” levels in November, following the surge in activity during October ahead of the ban on foreign buyers being implemented. Sales were up 2.6% from a year ago, with seasonally adjusted volumes at similar levels to the first half of the year.
- House prices remain a two-track game. National prices were up 3.5%pa, but were held back by Auckland, where prices fell 0.6%pa. Excluding Auckland, house prices advanced 7.6%pa as demand continues to outstrip supply.
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