Our take on the latest National population estimates (Thu 22 Nov 2018)
Annual net migration
61,751 as of October 2018
Arrivals down 2.7%pa in the 3 months to October
Departures rose 8.6%pa in the 3 months to October
The key numbers...
- Continued net migration contraction could signal coming problems for the labour market. As the unemployment rate falls further and migration statistics show a lack of any inspired growth in work visas, employers will find it even harder to obtain new labour.
- Today's release from Stats NZ shows migration statistics are in line with our forecasts of net migration, which we expect to fall below 60,000pa before the end of the year.
Net migration
Annual total
...and our reaction
- Growing departures continue to place downward pressure on net migration. The 12 months to October saw the highest number of departures since February 2014, with 66,372 migrants leaving NZ.
- The number of student visas issued continued its fall, down 3.5%pa in the three months to October - marking the eighth consecutive month of decline.
- Annual net migration of NZ citizens continues to deteriorate, with 3,144 more Kiwis leaving NZ than coming home in the 12 months to October.
Latest updates
Premium
National population estimates
Population growth lifted by increasing migration
Mon 18 May 2026
Quarterly
5,361,300 Total NZ population estimate as at March 20260.8%pa Population growth in March 2026 quarter24,200 Net migration over the year to March 2026Premium
National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Tue 17 Feb 2026
Quarterly
5,342,000 Total NZ population estimate as at December 2025
0.6%pa Population growth in December 2025 quarter
14,200 Net migration over the year to December 2025National population estimates
Population growth steady at 0.6%pa
Mon 17 Nov 2025
Quarterly
5,334,200 Total NZ population estimate as of September 2025
Population grows 0.6%pa in September 2025 quarterNet migration edges up to 12,500 for year ending September 2025National population estimates
Population growth now just 0.7%pa
Tue 19 Aug 2025
Quarterly
5,324,700 Total NZ population estimate as at June 2025
Population grows 0.7%pa in June 2025 quarterNet migration eases to 13,700 for year ending June 2025