Costs from grocery suppliers to supermarkets increase 1.9%pa in September

The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets in September was again unchanged from the last two months, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 1.9% increase in what suppliers charged in September 2026, compared with a year earlier.

“The September GSCI increase marked the third month in a row of unchanged pace, following the same 1.9%pa lift in both August and July,” said Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen. “A larger number of cost increases are still occurring, but these increases are still of a more moderate rate - a consistent trend in recent months. More sustained cost pressures remain for proteins given higher global demand and constrained global supply, alongside higher on-farm and fuel costs which are slowly filtering into the figures.”

“Recent increases in fuel and plastics prices are raising input costs again compounded higher imported cost pressures due to the lower currency (at a 17-year low) and leading to some of the increases seen recently. Cost trends remain uncertain given the volatile geopolitical outlook, but heightened global input costs for suppliers are likely to become clearer towards the end of 2026.”

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI), commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, measures the change in the list cost of grocery goods charged by suppliers to the Foodstuffs North Island and Foodstuffs South Island co-operatives. The Index utilises detailed Foodstuffs NZ data across over 60,000 products the Foodstuffs co-ops buy to stock in their 500+ stores, making it the largest dataset of its type in New Zealand, to give a real-time view on supplier cost changes.

Every month, the Index tracks what it costs supermarkets to buy the goods to put on the shelf. Previous analysis shows that supplier costs are the major component of supermarket prices, representing two-thirds of the on-shelf price.

Supplier costs rose across all departments in September compared with the previous year. “Seafood cost increases remain elevated, driven by higher fresh fish fillet costs. Frozen item costs rose 2.1%pa in September, due to higher frozen chicken and vegetable costs,” said Mr Olsen. “Higher costs for coffee, canned tuna, chips, and eggs also saw grocery department costs up 2.3%pa on average. Produce cost pressures were mixed, with higher potato but lower tomato costs, although higher fuel prices are likely to influence future produce costs.”

Month on month, just over 4,000 products increased in cost from August to September, continuing a more elevated trend in the number of increases but down from larger volumes in June and August. “There was a notable lift in the number of increases across the seafood, butchery, and grocery departments in September. The produce department saw a smaller number of increases than a year ago, but also far fewer seasonal cost reductions, likely as input costs on-farm remain high.”

ENDS

Note:

The Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI), commissioned by Foodstuffs New Zealand, measures the change in the list cost of grocery goods charged by suppliers to the Foodstuffs North and South Island cooperatives.

List cost refers to the cost suppliers charge retailers before trade spend is applied; trade spend being any form of discount provided by a supplier to allow their goods to be discounted.

The Index utilises detailed Foodstuffs NZ data, across over 60,000 products, analysed by independent economics consultancy Infometrics to produce the GSCI and publish it on a monthly basis. For more details see economics.infometrics.co.nz/report/grocery-supplier-cost-index.