Population slowdown everywhere in 2025

Stats NZ released their latest subnational population estimates this week, providing us with an annual reading of how population growth has affected each corner of the country. A slowdown in international net migration means that almost every area grew more slowly in 2025 than 2024.

In this article, we explore the high-level themes for population growth in 2025, before diving into specific cities or districts to illustrate the trends we’re seeing.

New Zealand’s population growth continues to slow, from 2.3% in 2023, to 1.7% in 2024, and just 0.7% in the year to June 2025. This pattern played out with remarkable uniformity, with every territorial authority facing the same or slower growth in 2025, compared to 2024. Slowing net migration is the culprit behind the current population growth slow down, with international net migration to New Zealand tumbling from 108,400 in 2023 to 70,400 in 2024 and 13,700 in 2025.

Putting aside the border-closure affected years of 2021 and 2022, this is New Zealand’s lowest level of net migration since 2013. However, a key difference between 2013 and 2025 is that natural increase (births minus deaths) has weakened significantly since then. New Zealand’s natural increase in 2013 was 30,800, resulting in overall population growth of 0.8%pa. In 2025, natural increase was just 21,000, meaning that with a similar level of net migration to 2013, New Zealand’s population growth is now weaker.

The substantial slowdown in migration meant that, even with a slowing natural increase too, natural increase contributed more to the population than migration did. Outside of border closures, this was the first time since 2013 that natural increase was a more important driver of growth than migration.

Underneath the 0.7% growth nationally in 2025, New Zealand’s territorial authorities ranged from growth of 2.4% to a decline of 0.4%. Most areas grew to some degree, but 18 areas saw their population decline in 2025, and four saw no change. Every single territorial authority faced a lower rate of growth in 2025 than 2024 – no one bucked the trend.

Selwyn District retained the mantle of our fastest growing territorial authority in 2025, having achieved this in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2024. However, Selwyn wasn’t immune from the population slow down, with their growth rate nearly halving, from 4.4% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 (see Table 1). In 2025, 2.4% growth put Selwyn’s growth at the top of the table in 2025, but two years ago in 2023, 14 territorial authorities grew faster than 2.4%.

In 2025, Queenstown-Lakes followed in second place with 1.7% growth, and Hamilton City in third place with 1.4% growth. Hamilton remains New Zealand’s youngest territorial authority, with a median age in 2025 of just 33.7 years. In joint-fourth place was a surprise – Southland District, with 1.5% growth. Like most areas, Southland District faced a slowdown in net migration and population growth overall, but it simply slowed down by less than many other areas.

At the bottom of the table, 18 areas experienced a population decline in 2025. Out of those 18, all but one had experienced growth in the previous year. Thames-Coromandel was the exception, facing a 0.2% decline in 2024 and 0.3% decline in 2025. Thames-Coromandel has the country's oldest population, with a median age of 55.6 years in 2025, and accordingly faces the most severe natural decline. In 2025, there were 140 more deaths than births in Thames-Coromandel, meaning that the population would have declined by 0.4% if net migration was zero.

The slowest growing territorial authority in 2025 was Porirua City, which faced declined by 0.3%. Porirua is most unlike Thames-Coromandel – it has relatively youthful population with a median age of 36.7 years, and births outnumbered deaths by 350 in 2025. Natural increase alone grew Porirua’s population by 0.6% in 2025, but the city faced a step outflow of migration, leading the city to its slowest population growth since Stats NZ’s subnational series began in 1996.

Chart 1 shows that beyond the hotspots of Selwyn, Queenstown-Lakes and Southland, population growth was relatively strong throughout much of the mid and lower South Island. Grey (0.8%), Westland (1.1%), Hurunui (0.9%), Waimakariri (1.1%), Christchurch (1.1.%), Ashburton (1.1%), Mackenzie (1.3%), Waitaki (0.9%) and Central Otago (1.3%) all grew faster than the national average.

In the North, growth was strongest in parts of the golden triangle including Kaipara (0.8%), Auckland (1.0%), Waikato (1.0%), Matamata-Piako (1.1%), Hamilton (1.4%) and Waipa (1.1%). Tauranga and Western Bay of Plenty are normally a fast-growing part of the golden triangle, but took a back seat in 2025, with growth of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. In 2025, Tauranga recorded its slowest population growth since this series began in 1996.

Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, we expect more of the same. With a muted labour market, there’s little impetus to bring in workers from overseas, so we expect international net migration to muddle along at its current low levels. Natural increase will continue to deteriorate as the population ages. Altogether, we expect a similar, muted, rate of population growth in 2026.

With the new population estimates for 2025, come revisions to estimates for 2024. Stats NZ has a fairly accurate read on the population nationally, having revised their 2024 national population estimates by just 2,500 people or 0.05%. However, timely information on migration within New Zealand is harder to come by, so the subnational population estimates are subject to more substantial revision as further data comes in to Stats NZ. In 2025, three cities saw the largest revisions, with Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin’s 2024 population estimates all revised up by 0.8%. For Wellington City, the 2025 release is a double-edged sword, as it shows their 2024 population was 1,700 larger than previously thought, but that their population declined by 720 people in 2025. When analysing population trends for your local area, it’s critical to examine a full time series, and not just compare the new 2025 estimate to old estimates for 2024.

Infometrics Regional Economic Profile has already been updated with the 2025 subnational population estimates. If you have any questions about the population of your area, please get in touch.

Infometrics population estimates will be updated with these estimates over the coming months, with updated projections to be released in December. Our population projections are updated every year to incorporate the latest population estimates (including revisions) and forecasts for net migration. This provides a significant advantage over other projections, such as Stats NZ’s own projections which are only updated every five years.